Episode 1483: Baseball in the 2020s
Date January 6, 2020 Summary Ben Lindbergh and a slightly light-headed Sam Miller banter about baseball and vomit and 2019 World Series Game 7 losing pitcher Will Harris signing with the Nationals, then attempt to predict what baseball will look like in the 2020s, touching on the most celebrated retirements, how high the strikeout rate will rise, how many games will be played, which tactics will come to the fore, what the most notable trends of the decade may be, whether baseball will get better or worse, and more. Topics * What will baseball look like in the 2020s? * Who will be the biggest retirement in the next decade? * Retirement tours for non-players * League-wide strikeout rate record * Tracking the increase in strikeout rate * How many baseball games will be played in the 2020s? * MLB expansion * Labor negotiations and work stoppages * Shortening the season * New strategies that will become popular in the 2020s * Injury prevention * Is baseball better in 2019 than 2009? * Will baseball be better in 2029? * Episode 1481 follow-up: ESPN Bat Track data Intro The Verve, "A New Decade" Outro Koufax, "Going to Happen" Banter * Sam has the flu, which leads to him and Ben discussing players who play through sickness. Sam says that ultimately he doesn't think it is that impressive, in part because when a sick player does well he suspects they weren't actually that sick. He says he is more likely to believe a pitcher is sick if they give up 14 ER in 2 innings rather than pitch 7 innings with 1 ER. * Sam says he recently threw up for the first time in 13 years. He says "I die every time I throw up" and that it feels like "I'm being squeezed to death." (His wife, on the other hand, says she feels better after throwing up.) * The Nationals signed Will Harris to a 3 year, $24 million contract. Harris gave up World Series home runs to Anthony Rendon (game 6) and Howie Kendrick (game 7). Ben considers it a strong vote of confidence from the Nationals. Notes * Anthony Rendon's home run off Will Harris in game 6 of the World Series had an expected batting average of .010. * Ben thinks that Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, or Clayton Kershaw is likely to get the biggest retirement tour of the 2020s. Sam guesses Joey Votto, Buster Posey, or Yadier Molina in addition to Joe Maddon as a non-player candidate. * Ben guesses that the league-wide strikeout rate will decline in the 2020s. * Both Ben and Sam predict expansion for MLB in the 2020s, and neither thinks the length of the season will change. * Ben emailed with Phil Orlins, senior coordinating producer for ESPN's MLB broadcasts, about Bat Track. Orlins said it was something ESPN initially tried at Joe Morgan's suggestion because Morgan thought the numbers would be good to work into broadcasts. However when the data didn't tell the story Morgan wanted, ESPN lost interest in continuing to show it. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1483: Baseball in the 2020s * What Happens When Starters Get Sick by Ben Lindbergh * Best team. Best moment. Best brawl? Handing out our MLB end-of-decade awards by Bradford Doolittle and Sam Miller * One mistake by Harris allows Rendon to pounce by Alyson Footer * Will Harris Played Well, Didn't Get Rewarded by Ben Clemens * The Strikeout Ascendant (and What Should Be Done About It) by Steve Treder * One Weird Trick to Beat MLB Batters by Ben Lindbergh * The Five Trends That Could Define Baseball's Future by Ben Lindbergh * ESPN Bat Track broadcast * ESPN Bat Track data Category:Episodes